Staring at a market report and wondering what it actually means for your move in Bellingham? You are not alone. Metrics like months of supply, DOM, and list-to-sale ratio can feel like jargon, yet they point to real opportunities and risks for buyers and sellers. This guide shows you how to read those numbers, apply them to Bellingham’s micro-markets, and turn insights into practical next steps. Let’s dive in.
Core metrics to know
Months of supply explained
Months of supply estimates how long it would take to sell all current listings at the current sales pace. The simple formula is: active listings ÷ average monthly closed sales. Some reports use pending sales or a 3 or 12 month rolling average.
General guidance many analysts use:
- Under 2 months: seller’s market
- Around 2 to 4 months: balanced market
- Over 4 months: buyer’s market
In Bellingham, this metric can be volatile in small segments, like a narrow price tier or a single condo building. Areas near Western Washington University can show seasonal swings, with faster turnover in late spring into summer. A new project, such as a larger condo release, can temporarily spike supply without signaling weak long-term demand. For the cleanest read, compare like-for-like property types and use rolling averages to smooth noise.
Days on market insight
Days on market tracks how long a listing takes to go under contract. Short DOM usually signals accurate pricing and strong demand. Long DOM can point to overpricing, weaker demand, or condition issues. Luxury tiers often take longer to sell even in a strong citywide market. Winter listings also tend to show longer DOM in Bellingham.
Different boards can measure DOM differently, especially around relists. To avoid being misled, look at the median and the distribution, such as the share sold within 14, 30, or 60 days, not just one average.
List-to-sale ratio basics
This ratio shows how close sale prices are to list prices. The formula is sale price ÷ final list price, expressed as a percentage. Some reports compare sale price to the original list price as well.
- Over 100% suggests a competitive market with bids over asking.
- Around 97 to 100% suggests a tight market with some negotiation.
- Under 97% points to more buyer leverage and likely concessions.
Be careful with reports that only use final list price. If a seller reduces price several times, the final list-to-sale ratio can look stronger than sale ÷ original list. For clarity, track both when possible to see pricing trajectory.
Median vs mean price
The median is the middle sale, while the mean is the average. In Bellingham, a few high-priced lakefront or mountain-view sales can skew the average. The median is usually more representative of a “typical” sale, especially in small segments.
Price per square foot
Price per square foot can be useful when you compare similar homes in the same neighborhood and condition. It becomes unreliable across very different property types, ages, or lot sizes. Always control for view, lot size, and condition when you use it.
Active, new, pending, closed
- Active listings show current supply.
- New listings show fresh supply entering the market.
- Pending sales indicate near-term demand.
- Closed sales show realized demand.
Watching new listings alongside pendings can help you see shifts early. A rising pending-to-active ratio can flag strengthening demand.
Price reductions and buyer mix
An uptick in price reductions often comes before softer prices or more buyer leverage. A lower share of reductions suggests price resilience. Also consider the mix of cash and financed buyers. Cash can influence timelines and negotiations in certain segments.
Bellingham micro-markets
Bellingham is not one single market. Each area and property type tells its own story. When you interpret a report, zoom into comparable homes within these broad areas:
- Central Bellingham and Downtown: more condos, close to WWU, walkable amenities, and seasonality tied to the university calendar.
- Fairhaven and South Bellingham: historic housing and retail influence that can draw tourist and second-home interest.
- Lake Whatcom and Silver Beach: larger lots and waterfront properties often priced in higher tiers with longer marketing windows.
- Cordata, Columbia, and Sunnyland: a mix that includes newer subdivisions and established neighborhoods with varied price points.
- Barkley Village, Northwest, and West Bellingham: suburban pockets with a range of home styles and ages.
- Nearby Whatcom communities: Ferndale, Lynden, Blaine, and Sudden Valley each have distinct pricing dynamics. Cross-border factors can play a role at times.
Compare apples to apples
- Match property type and tier. Compare detached homes to detached homes, condos to condos, and similar bed, bath, and lot ranges.
- Use neighborhood-level months of supply and DOM with 3 or 12 month averages to smooth small-sample swings.
- Adjust for seasonality. Student-adjacent areas often shift in late spring into summer.
- Note one-off factors such as a new development or a batch of distressed sales.
Example reads you might see
- Downtown condo segment with 1.5 months of supply and 5 DOM: very active demand. Expect strong interest for well-priced units, but confirm if a batch of small, similar units is driving the numbers.
- Lake Whatcom waterfront with 8 months of supply and few sales: buyer leverage within that niche. Expect longer timeframes and careful pricing and condition work.
- A Cordata-area new-build track shows rising new listings but steady months of supply: absorption is keeping pace, which can still indicate a balanced market.
Tactics for sellers
When months of supply is low and list-to-sale is over 100%:
- Consider a tighter marketing window and pricing that invites multiple offers.
- Use pre-listing inspections and strong marketing to maximize visibility.
- Limit contingencies where appropriate and coordinate timelines for a smooth close.
When months of supply and DOM are rising:
- Price with the market, not against it. Consider stronger initial pricing and budget for concessions.
- Plan for inspection negotiations and consider staging or targeted updates that matter most to buyers.
- Time your listing to seasonal patterns when possible, especially for niche segments.
In all cases, request neighborhood-specific comps, confirm the counts behind headline metrics, and ask your agent about off-market competition and builder inventory that may not be obvious in a public snapshot.
Tactics for buyers
In low inventory with short DOM and list-to-sale over 100%:
- Get fully prepared. Have pre-approval or proof of funds ready.
- Use tight timelines and flexible terms when reasonable. Escalation clauses and clean offers can help in the right context.
- Work with a local agent who understands upcoming listings and seasonal flows, including areas near WWU.
In higher inventory with longer DOM and lower list-to-sale:
- Negotiate on price and request concessions. Longer inspection windows and appraisal contingencies carry less risk.
- Leverage price-reduction history and DOM in your negotiation.
In every market:
- Read 3 and 12 month trends, not just a single month. A citywide seller’s market can coexist with buyer advantages in certain neighborhoods or tiers.
- Consider appraisal risk if nearby comps are softening, especially for financed purchases.
Build a local snapshot
If you want a monthly micro-market view, focus on a few essentials:
- Track months of supply, median sale price, new listings, pending sales, and closed sales over 3 to 12 months.
- Create a neighborhood snapshot that includes active listings, months of supply, median DOM, median sale price, price per square foot, list-to-sale ratio, percent of price reductions, cash share, and number of closed sales.
- Use rolling averages to smooth small samples, and add notes for one-time events like a new condo release.
Primary data sources often include the Northwest Multiple Listing Service for Bellingham and Whatcom County, local REALTOR association reports, the Whatcom County Assessor and Recorder for transaction history, City of Bellingham planning reports for development pipeline, and regional brokerage commentaries for context. National research groups can provide definitions and broader benchmarks, but local MLS data is your most precise source.
Avoid data traps
- Small counts can swing rates. Always pair a rate with the raw count of sales.
- Standardize definitions. Note whether months of supply uses closed or pending and whether list-to-sale uses original or final list.
- Understand DOM rules. Relists and broker transfers can reset DOM in some data sets.
- Separate property types and price tiers to prevent misleading comparisons.
When a local expert helps
Use market reports to understand broad patterns. Bring in a local expert when you need street-level clarity, off-market context, and strategy.
Ask your agent to:
- Provide neighborhood comps and explain adjustments for condition, lot, and view.
- Show the counts behind the metrics, such as how many sales produced a median.
- Explain local factors like the WWU calendar, cross-border dynamics, or a new development pipeline that may be shifting demand.
- Clarify pricing trajectory with both sale ÷ original list and sale ÷ final list, plus price-reduction patterns.
Ready to translate the data into a plan for your home sale or purchase in Bellingham? Reach out to Chris Boyd for a calm, one-on-one consultation backed by local expertise and Compass marketing tools.
FAQs
If months of supply is low in my Bellingham neighborhood, will I get multiple offers?
- Possibly. Confirm that low supply applies to homes like yours by type and price tier, and review recent comps for offer counts and concession patterns.
Why is days on market rising while prices look flat in Bellingham?
- It can mean higher-priced homes are taking longer while entry-level demand stays stable, or that modest price reductions are not yet moving the median.
How can I tell if the list-to-sale ratio reflects real demand?
- Check both sale ÷ original list and sale ÷ final list, and look for frequent price reductions or relists that can make ratios look stronger than they are.
What metrics matter most for condos vs single-family in Bellingham?
- Track months of supply, DOM, and list-to-sale by property type. Condos can show different norms than detached homes, so compare apples to apples.
Where can I find reliable local housing data for Bellingham?
- Local MLS reports via a broker, your REALTOR association’s snapshots, county assessor and recorder records, city planning reports, and regional broker commentaries are strong starting points.
